Persian Gulf Follies

Yesterday, it was reported that Iran has threatened to close the vital Strait of Hormuz if the USA follows through on plans to impose a total embargo upon the Iranian oil industry.

Today, we are informed that our nation's government has responded with counter-threats, and that a representative of the US 5th Fleet, (which is permanently assigned to the Persian Gulf, and based in Bahrain), chimed in with further hawkish saber-rattling.

This raises a number of questions in the tiny marsupial mind of your faithful correspondent. Not least of these would be, why do we have an independent statement by the 5th Fleet? Is the US Navy now a power unto itself? Does the State department no longer handle diplomatic chores for the United States of (corporate) Amerika? A minor point, you may opine, but still one more indicator that we live in a post-democratic nation-state.

On to the substance of the issue.

The painful part about being a student of history, is that one can often see the parallels, and guess what happens next. The hazardous part about being a student of history, is that one can often guess wrong. None the less, let's play the game of historical parallels for a bit, shall we?

The Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor, which occurred on December 7th of 1942, roughly seventy years and three weeks ago, should not have been a surprise. The Anglo-Dutch-US consortium which controlled all oil resources in the Pacific at that time had imposed a complete oil embargo on Japan, using the colorful excuse of Japanese expansion in China.

Yes, I use the term "colorful excuse" deliberately. The Rape of Nanking occurred in 1937, and its details were known in western capitals within weeks, at most. So it took the powers-that-be four long years to decide that those naughty Japanese must be punished? Horseshit. In 1937, nobody in the West gave a damn about the Chinese. By 1941, Roosevelt was desperately seeking an excuse to drag the USA into another European war.

And so the device of an oil embargo was decided upon. Japan, then as now, was totally dependent upon oil imports. US economists predicted that the Japanese economy would collapse within six months without oil. And yet, when Japan responded with a military assault upon the colonial possessions of the embargoing powers, we were caught by surprise? Again I say, horseshit. Anyone who knew anything about Japanese culture and history could have predicted that Japan would fight rather than fold. And even a cursory study of Japanese military history would have revealed that the surprise attack was an old favorite tactic.

Now fast-forward 70 years. Granted Iran and Japan are very different nations, with very different cultures and historical traditions. Imperial Japan was territorially expansionist; Iran hasn't invaded a neighbouring country for over 200 years. The Achilles' Heel of Imperial Japan was oil imports, and that of Iran is its oil exports.

And yet, there are parallels. In both cases, the nation being embargoed was perceived to be a threat to the power of the US Navy. In both cases, the nation being embargoed was perceived to be a threat to the colonial practices of the Western Powers. And in both cases, the subtle hand of the Zionists was at work behind the scenes.

Whoa, Possum, you say! That came out of left field; how the fuck do you figure that?

In 1941, the Zionists wanted the USA committed to the European disaster that we now call World War II, both in order to defeat Germany and also to follow through on plans for the creation of Israel.

Here in late 2011, the Zionists want the USA committed to war with Iran, in order to further the interests of Israel, or at least the perceived interests of the ultra-conservative cabal which currently controls Israel's government.

(And this is as good a place as any to gently remind ourselves that there are good people in Israel, and blaming all Israelis for the horrid crimes of the Israeli government would be every bit as unjust as blaming all Americans for the horrid crimes of the US government.)

So, once again, we have an oil embargo being used to provoke an armed conflict. And yet, the world of 2011 is vastly different from that of 1941. Today, we have stern warnings against precipitate action from the Russians and Chinese, both of whom have a permanent seat on the UN Security Council, with the veto power granted by that permanent seat.

As horrid as the thought may be, as painfully as my heart cries out in grief for the potential suffering of the common people both in Iran and here in the USA, I am very much afraid that the reactionaries will succeed in provoking a shooting war involving Iran, sometime in 2012.

What the consequences of that war will be, dear reader, that I cannot begin to say. And neither can the criminal psychopaths who control Washington DC and Tel Aviv.



(Open Salon readers can watch the video here)

Infant Mortality Spikes in Philadelphia

First, right out of the gate, take the core of this story with a grain of salt, (or perhaps half a shaker full), because it was reported on Fox News.

According to Fox news, quoting the director of the Radiation and Public Heath Project, Philadelphia is experiencing dangerously elevated levels of both radioactivity and iodine in its drinking water. At the same time, there has been a "spike" in infant mortality in Philadelphia.

I place the word "spike" in quotes for a good reason. The infant mortality per week "has increased by 48%", Fox breathlessly reports. Well, OK, 48% is an alarming increase. Then we discover that this translates to an increase from 5 per week to 7.5 per week. We'll pass over the obvious half-a-baby gags and references to the Wisdom of Solomon.

The question is, does this constitute a large enough statistical sample to be valid? I don't know, do you? If you have some professional competence in any applicable field, by all means please comment.

I do know that the subject of infant mortality is a shamefully embarrassing one for the USA, and I definitely intend to visit the topic in full very soon.

Radioactive Air Filters in Seattle

Latest news leaking out of Japan indicates that the release of radiation, in particular micron-size "hot particles", (which allegedly cannot be detected by geiger counters), of caesium, plutonium, and strontium isotopes, has been far greater than has previously been admitted.

Earlier this month, Japan's Emergency Nuclear Response Headquarters finally admitted that Fukushima reactors 1, 2, and 3 had all experienced a full meltdown.

And, as I said in the title, radioactive air filters are showing up in cars in the Seattle-Tacoma area of Washington state.

If those hot particles are getting into people's cars, they are also getting into people's lungs, and intestinal tracts, where they lodge and remain for the rest of your life. Needless to say, that "rest of your life" is likely to be a good bit shorter than would otherwise have been the case.

Why hasn't the administration done anything about this? Well, it's a case of follow the money, of course. One of Barak Obama's biggest campaign donors has been the Exelon corporation, which operates, (you guessed it!), nuclear power plants. Furthermore, Exelon corporation is one of the biggest employers in the state of Illinois, where Obama was Senator. As if that wasn't enough, Obama has also appointed the CEO of Exelon to his Blue Ribbon Commission on America's Nuclear Future. My grandmother would have called this "setting the fox to guard the chicken coop".

Hey, it's business as usual in Corporate Amerika. Screw public health, screw the future, corporate profits and getting re-elected are more important. Change we can believe in, Mr President, thank you very much.

Could McCain really have done all that much worse?

Read the full story at AJE here

NOT April Fools'

I hate April Fools' Day. Then again, I hate practical jokes. Unfortunately, fate seems to be playing one practical joke after another on us.

The situation in Japan, believe it or not, continues to get worse. Yes, that's true; I have said that before. More than once, even.

Radioactive iodine levels in the sea near the Fukushima nuclear plant are now up over 4000 times the legal limit, and officials are saying they may have a continuous leak.

Plutonium has been found in the soil nearby, and groundwater near the plant is also contaminated at up to 10,000 times the normal level. Oh, but the operators of the plant assure us there is no danger to human health. There is an EPA document on Plutonium here; it's written for the layman, and relatively easy to read and understand, so I'll let you judge for yourselves. The good news seems to be that the damned stuff isn't quite as chemically toxic as was thought to be the case 30-some years ago.

There have also been more explosions at the plant in recent days, just to keep us wondering. And the Japanese government has announced that "evacuations will be long-term", which is a de facto admission of heavy contamination.

In other related news, the Japanese government also announced that it will take control of TEPCO, the Tokyo Electric Power Company, which is the operator of the Fukushima plant. This in the face of compensation liabilities which have been estimated in excess of $130 billion US.

While we're on the subject, let's compare that amount to something else. This whole nuclear disaster has incurred a liability of $130 Billion US. That's a lot of money. But it pales in comparison to the $700 Billion US that Obama gave away to the richest 2% of Americans by extending the Bush tax cuts.

Think about it. With the amount that our oh-so-dearly-beloved President handed to the Republicans on a platter, without even a fight, the whole nuclear mess in Japan so far could have been paid for five times over, with enough left to finance HR589 three times over.

And to think I was stupid enough to actually vote for that asshole.

Radioactive Ocean

Oh, and the news from Japan just keeps getting better. The latest is that levels of radioactivity 1200 times normal have been detected in the ocean near the Fukushima nuclear plant. (the part of the video you want starts about 0:55)

There is a monitoring page here, which will show you radiation levels at various points around the continental USA. Be aware that you need to read the disclaimer and other accompanying documentation in order to interpret this information in an intelligent manner.

The question in my tiny little mind at this point is, how much longer is this going to go on? How much worse is it going to get? At what point will the Obama administration, (which is desperately pretending that the Gulf Oil disaster is all over and done with), pull its pointy head out of its collective anal orifice and acknowledge that there is a potentially very serious problem here?

Oh, but they're "monitoring the situation", so there's no need to worry. I mean, after all, it's not like our government would lie to us about anything this serious, right?

The sad fact of the matter is that Obama has gone into bunker mode, and he's not going to do anything until he either gets re-elected or thrown out of office. Our dearly-beloved Commander-in-Chief seems to feel that he can just stand up there with his golden teleprompter and "look presidential", and that this will be enough to get him re-elected in 2012, which certainly seems to be all he cares about at this point.

And please don't try to tell me that the US air raids in Libya are an example of decisive action by Obama. Please. What he did was dither and wring his hands until the last possible moment, and then simply give in to the right-wing hawks, as usual.

Japan Nuclear Meltdown In Progress

Not to run around echoing the Alex Jones crowd, but we really can legitimately use the word meltdown now.

Check the following quotes from AJE's Japan Live Blog.

...

More on that "US nuclear chair" - who has now been named as Gregory Jaczko, the chief of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, currently giving a report to Congress.

He says all the water has gone from the spent fuel pools at reactor No.4 in Fukushima No.1 facility, Japan's most troubled nuclear plant. This means there is nothing to stop the fuel rods from getting hotter and ultimately melting down.

The outer shell of the rods could also ignite, with enough force to propel the radioactive fuel inside over a wide area, he says.

Gregory Jaczko did not say how the information was obtained, but the NRC and US Department of Energy both have staff on site at the Fukushima complex of six reactors.

....

Staff at Japan's Fukushima nuclear plant may receive "lethal doses" of radiation, the US nuclear regulator has told Congress. Gregory Jaczko, head of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, said:

We believe that around the reactor site there are high levels of radiation. It would be very difficult for emergency workers to get near the reactors. The doses they could experience would potentially be lethal doses in a very short period of time.

Oh my. When a government official admits the situation is that bad, you know things are really fucked up.

The important thing is to somehow keep all this in perspective. To evaluate the available information, weight it according to our best estimate of the credibility of that source, and decide what to do. For most of us, there's little or nothing we can do.

Japanese Nuclear Plant Explodes

The 4th reactor at the worst-damaged nuclear power plant in Japan has exploded, prompting Japanese authorities to widen the evacuation zone repeatedly.



(Open Salon users can view the video here)

This is going beyond ugly. Three Mile Island failed to be a major disaster because the containment dome held up. This containment dome has just failed catastrophically.

It is very hard to know what to say at this point, my friends, other than to express my extreme sympathy and best wishes for the Japanese people.

Oh yes, and on the possible nutcake-alert front, some are saying that HAARM was used to cause this earthquake and subsequent disasters. I'll let you look HAARM up for yourselves and decide what to think. Just try to remember that while paranoia is defined as an unreasonable fear, it is difficult to objectively determine which concerns are unreasonable when dealing with the workings (or possible workings) of an unknown technology.

China, Japan, and Precedent

For the first time since last month's fishing boat incident in the Japanese Senkaku islands, the Prime Ministers of China and Japan have held a face-to-face meeting. Apparently there was agreement of restoring relations, but little else.

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao was quoted in Chinese state media as stressing that the islands, which the Chinese call Diaoyu, "have been Chinese since ancient times", a claim which neatly ignores reality for the past 100+ years.

Japan's Naoto Kan commented that "It is important to mutually respect shared rules of the international community, including those of transactions of raw materials and trade in order to deepen the mutually interdependent relations between Asia and Europe and to achieve mutual growth. It is imperative for related countries and regions to take responsible actions to strengthen trust and to establish a foundation for peace and stability."

While I could always be mistaken, I think that's a very polite Japanese way of saying, "Fuck you, and the horse you rode in on."

China's aggressive belligerence in the Senkaku Islands of the East China Sea is part of the same strategy demonstrated in the Spratly and Paracel Islands of the South China Sea. Chinese claims in both areas rest entirely upon largely-imaginary "have been Chinese since ancient times" arguments. Chinese claims in both areas are really about extensive gas and oil deposits on the nearby sea floor, not a few marginally-habitable islands. Fishing rights are a consideration, but a secondary one.

Now, on to the business of precedent. In law, international law or any other kind, precedent is worshiped like a tiny god.

It is worth noting that the Chinese claims of "Chinese since ancient times" which are heard in the China Sea disputes, are very similar to the "God gave it to us 3000 years ago" claims which are Israel's only real claim to Occupied Palestine. If one of those claims is agreed to by the international community, this will greatly strengthen the other claim, because it will establish precedent.

Japan-China Controversy Continues

As a follow-on to previous stories, (see here and here), Japan last week released the skipper of the Chinese fishing boat which had been detained in the Senkaku Islands. This release of the boat's captain was seen as partly in response to the Chinese arrest of several Japanese citizens.

The Chinese are not satisfied. They have demanded that Japan apologize, and pay compensation. Japan has responded by refusing to apologize, saying that there was nothing to apologize for in having detained the boat, which was in Japanese waters illegally.

Now Japan has demanded that China pay reparations for the damage inflicted upon the Japanese Coast Guard vessels when the Chinese fishing boat rammed them.

Full story at Al Jazeera here
Story at the UK Telegraph here

Japan-China Dispute Continues to Escalate

The dispute between Japan and China over the ownership of the Senkaku islands continues to escalate.

Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao earlier today threatened Japan with "further action" if the captain of a Chinese fishing boat that rammed Japanese coast guard vessels last week is not released. Given that China has already canceled all high-level contacts with Japan, and broken off all on-going talks, the phrase "further action" could take on ominous overtones.

The real dispute over the islands has little to do with fishing rights, and a great deal to do with the vast gas and oil deposits which are believed to lie beneath the seabed in the area around the islands. It is becoming clear that China, repeating a pattern of behavior seen in the Spratly Islands of the South China Sea, sent the fishing boat into Japanese waters specifically to provoke a confrontation, which it is now seeking to exploit. This theory of deliberate provocation is bolstered by the convenient proximity to the anniversary of the 1931 Mukden Incident, which China still makes much of, even 80 years later. There too, much of the "public outrage" in China over this recent incident has a definite flavor of being orchestrated.

The Japanese, however, have their own agenda. In the first place, Japan desperately needs an oil source of its own. Japan requires a half-dozen supertankers full of crude oil per day in order to keep its economy running, oil that it has historically obtained through the Persian Gulf. But with Persian Gulf oil sources, and indeed all Middle East oil sources, fast becoming of ever more uncertain reliability, Japan very much needs a long-term solution.

In the second place, a confrontation with the Chinese now could serve as a casus belli for Japan to amend its post-war constitution and openly re-arm, especially given that any such re-armament would inevitably infuriate the Chinese in any case.

See earlier entry on this incident here
Al Jazeera story on the latest developments here
UK Telegraph story here, but with an odd perspective.

Diplomatic Escalation In Japan-China Row Over East China Sea

China today upped the diplomatic pressure on Japan over recent incidents between the ships of the two nations in the disputed region of the East China Sea.

China and Japan have long-running disputes over a number of territorial issues, including ownership of the islands in the East China Sea known as Senkaku in Japan and Diaoyu in China. Japan has physical possession of the islands, and China claims them.

In recent years, as China finally begins to exercise the power represented by its newly-constructed blue water navy, China's posture in both the East China Sea and the South China Sea has become more openly aggressive and belligerent. As one example of this, China has been sending fishing boats into disputed waters, in order to provoke incidents which would give its navy an excuse to act.

The most recent example of this took place last week, near the Senkaku islands mentioned above. When two Japanese Coast Guard vessels approached the Chinese fishing vessel, the captain rammed the Japanese vessels and refused to stop. The ship was finally boarded and the captain and crew were arrested. They remain in custody, and the diplomatic catfight has been ratcheting up since Friday.

On Friday, the Chinese cancelled planned negotiations over another dispute in the same region, this one involving ownership of undersea gas deposits.

On Saturday, a Chinese vessel and a Japanese Coast Guard vessel were involved in another incident northwest of Okinawa.

Today, (Sunday 9/12/10), Japan's ambassador to China was summoned in the hours before dawn to listen to a list of angry demands presented by State Councilor Dai Bingguo, who is a high official in the Communist Party, thus out-ranking the Foreign Minister.

Chinese politics are always difficult to interpret. Is this just another round of diplomatic rubber chicken antics? I will confess to being without a clue. But it does seem clear that China is determined to expand its territorial claims in an aggressive manner, and feels it now has the preponderance of military force in the region.

As Chairman Mao said long ago, "Every Communist must grasp the truth. Political power grows out of the barrel of a gun."


More on the current incident at Arab News

Related issues in Asia Times Online